BLOG - in Transition

MAR (Marin Association of Realtors) 2006 president came to my Rotary Club's meeting and talked abouer the "Truths" about Real Estate in Marin.  Some of her points (and expanded by me) are:

Truth # 1
Marin County has a diverse economy. It is not dominated by one large industry or company. Real Estate property in Marin is in limited supply. Marin is a highly favored place to live, have a family and work. All work together to stabilize the market and establish appreciation in Real Estate investments

Sylvia's Note - S.F. Bay Area is the gateway to the Pacific Rims, with great jobs, and the economy is coming back strong after the dot.com bust starting from the South Bay and up.  With limited supply (aided by all the designated Open Space), and positive outlook in the region, we are seeing upward trend slowing coming back.   

Truth #2
Balance in the R/E market is back. The days of multiple buyer offers is over. Our limited inventory of available properties varys normally with demand, win-win situations are normal where buyers and sellers actually negotiate a transaction.

Sylvia's note - In recent months, we have seen multiple offers cautiously coming back in ceratin pockets of the area, such as Mill Valley, Ross, Kentfield and in Novato, the least expensive town in Marin, if the house is priced right, situated in a great location 

Truth #3
The Fall of 2006 was the low point in the Marin market. For Marin, in Feb 2007 the number of sales were up 19% and the median sales price was up 6.4%. For Novato the number of sales were up 10% and the median sales price was up 7.9%. Since 1975 investment returns in R/E have been consistently up an average of 9.1%/yr. Yes, R/e estate investment is a good investment.

Truth #4
When selling R/e property like a residence, staging the property is a significant aide to selling the property.

Sylvia's Note - I have helped my clients staged many houses (there are different levels of staging, starting from cleaning/organizing to full house staging - see my staging page).  It is such a pleasure to see the huge before and after changes to the house.  It's also great to see how happy and proud my clients are after their houses are staged.  Walking into a home for the first time, a well staged house shows owner's pride and give an impression of a well-cared for, and loved house.    

sylvia's Note - As a Statistician by training, I know first hand how numbers can be very misleading if you don't know the facts, conditions behind the numbers.  Find the facts, don't just look at the surface.  

• Median home price for the last 12 months is $704,000
• With the current sales rate, there are 7 months worth of inventory
• Average on market time for the last 12 months is 85 days.  This number includes escrow time;
• % of single family home in escrow is 27%
• % of CID in escrow is 19% 

Novato Housing Market is picking up pace again.  190 houses went into contract or sold since 11/1/06.  Of those, 59 went into contract or sold in both November and December, and 72 went into contract or sold since 01/01/07.  A couple of condos I have been watching for the past months just went into contract within a week of each other.  Good signs!  

• The Market  The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5.25%; citing indications of firmer economic growth and some tentative signs of stabilization in the housing market. Overall, the Fed says that the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace and readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months with moderate inflation pressures.  

The announcement caused the first short-lived little rally of 2007 on 01/31, which went flat after the weekly Jobless Claims report continued to show the US labor market is enjoying moderate growth.

The Bottom Line is that Interest rates have been hovering around the same range since last September and they’ll likely remain where they are for the foreseeable future, or for the year.  

Mortgage defaults double in Marin, reports Marin IJ today.  The IJ said that Marin had 101 default notices during the quarter, up from 51 in the last quarter, 2005.  The IJ said that nearly a third of California homeowners who received default notices ended up foreclosed on their homes in the fourth quarter of last year.   

I have seen several 'short sales' (meaning the listing price of the house will not be able to fully cover the debt incurred) on the market since the middle of last year.  Sign of foreclosures.   A couple are caused by mortgage frauds, and most are caused by risky adjustable mortgages which serve the buyers well with low interest rate and rising home prices and constant refinancing.  When interest rate increases and housing prices are stale, these buyers are forced to go into default without a substantives increase in income. 

Realtors in my office reported Open House activities.... very encouraging news ... After the slow seasons, many buyers are finally out there shopping again!  

Went to help another realtor price a soon-to-be on market house (CAMEO) - Beautifully appointed, 3500+ sf, lots upgrades, almost new house with great views.  Watch for it to come on market, very interesting to see what the house is priced at ... stay tuned...

Interesting to hear what neighbors observed.  Talked to a friend about her neighbor's house, which finally went into escrow - after being on market for more than 6 months and a STEEP drop in much-lower-than-market price (that did generate 6 offers) .... Be careful of overpricing your property and ended up taking much longer to sell, and many times; much lower sale price than you could have gotten when priced correctly!